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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still